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[–]moirende 2 points3 points ago

It feels a little futile to add to a thread which already appears dead, but Briggs himself commented on the many "criticisms" made by one particular person he felt was representative of the general rank and file on this one. I thought his response summed things up rather well. The quote is here, from the comments section on his blog:

Briggs says: 3 February 2012 at 1:51 pm Trent1492,

I have no idea who you are, but your comments of today are typical, so I thought I’d single you out. Actually, yours are on top; the only reason I picked you.

Now, I mean this nicely and in the spirit of constructive criticism. Your comments show that you haven’t any but the barest, slightest familiarity with statistics, particularly Bayesian statistics, and the branch of it called predictive statistics, nor of the philosophy of evidence. I have said, and do say, that I used particular terms in a technical way. I have given links to works which show exactly what those technical definitions are. Further, I have given extensive reasons why those methods should be used and the necessary difference between them and inferior methods of analysis.

I accuse you of not reading them, of remaining in ignorance of the concepts at hand on purpose and of maintaining a blustery, unsustainable attitude of self-superiority. Your failure to do your homework could be because of laziness, or because of inability to grasp the material, or pigheadedness and inability to admit to a mistake, or some other reason I cannot fathom. If you were a student of mine, I not only would have failed you, I would have written a letter to your parents to come fetch you and give you a lecture on diligence and propriety.

All are welcome to comment here, but only if they act like ladies and gentlemen. Criticize me, lecture me, tease me, even. By all means show me where I am in error and I will call you friend. But first learn whereof you speak or you make yourself look foolish and waste the time of others.

[–]nuclear_is_good 0 points1 point ago

All are welcome to comment here, but only if they act like ladies and gentlemen. Criticize me, lecture me, tease me, even. By all means show me where I am in error and I will call you friend. But first learn whereof you speak or you make yourself look foolish and waste the time of others.

I am afraid after writing in the original article cheap crap like:

... Mann’s understanding of statistics may be likened to an overly enthusiastic undergraduate who left the lecture early.

it is pretty difficult to claim he took the high road and was just talking about the technical aspects.

Even in that regard he is totally wrong on two accounts - first of all since Phil was not arguing what Briggs attacked - a pretty clear straw-man fallacy.

But the final blow to his 'argument' was this part:

I don’t know what the prediction uncertainty is for Plait’s picture. Neither does he. I’d be willing to bet it’s large enough so that we can’t tell with certainty greater than 90% whether temperatures in the 1940s were cooler than in the 2000s.

On that point (coupled with the fact that the data comes from BEST - which has a good paper on those uncertainties here) means that Briggs is completely wrong and that we can say with something like 99.9999% (or better) certainty that the temperatures in the 1940s were cooler than in the 2000s.

[–]yoashby 4 points5 points ago

lmao, amazing how many people have their panties in a knot over that article. says a lot about their position.

[–]kokey 4 points5 points ago

I think Briggs must be enjoying this, it's flattering in a way.

[–]counters -5 points-4 points ago

Nobody has "their panties in a knot." I'd imagine there are quite a few head-shaped holes in desks and walls about now... Briggs is just wrong on so many different levels, and skeptics' refusal to capitulate on anything when they're obviously and so undeniably wrong is beyond frustrating.

[–]bluegarlic 3 points4 points ago*

Here you go again. Our esteemed "in house chief modeller"; whom work is so perfect nature itself is no match for. He predicts, he tries to persuade, to inspire; unfortunately nature turned its back onto him. This is no time to despair, the self chosen one will keep on howling, yelling and sometimes even put rationality's mask over his tired figure.

[–]counters -1 points0 points ago

So, you agree then with Briggs that an average is a "model"?

[–]bluegarlic 1 point2 points ago

That allegation, if true, would be a minor typo/mistake compared to the things you paddled for quite some time.

[–]counters 1 point2 points ago

Yes, because the things I peddle are so far out of the mainstream...

[–]Seele 1 point2 points ago*

You disagree?

Of course an average can be considered to be a model. When you create a simplified representation of a phenomenon by picking out what you consider to be its salient features, while discarding what you consider irrelevant, in order to reason about it, you are using a model.

[–]counters 0 points1 point ago

Of course an average can be considered to be a model. When you create a simplified representation of a phenomenon by picking out what you consider to be its salient features, while discarding what you consider irrelevant, in order to reason about it, you are using a model.

You haven't described a model. We're not even arguing semantics here - we're arguing fundamental, basic understanding of what sort of conceptual frameworks are used by scientists to study the physical world. Can you produce any textbook or authoritative reference which backs up your assertion that an average is a "model"?

[–]Seele 3 points4 points ago

An average fits the criteria I outlined above. Do you dispute that? Do you dispute the criteria?

[–]madmanoflamancha -3 points-2 points ago

An average fits the criteria I outlined above.

It really doesn't. An average is a measure, not a model. It is not a "simplified representation of a phenomenon." If you believe this, then explain what phenomenon it is a simplified representation of?

[–]Seele 4 points5 points ago

An average is a proxy for a data set, chosen on the grounds that it represents (or models) the data set well enough to reason about it.

[–]madmanoflamancha -2 points-1 points ago

Following your definition, the number "5" qualifies a model...kinda defeats the point Briggs is trying to make.

[–]yoashby 1 point2 points ago

so you're saying you wear panties?

[–]counters 3 points4 points ago

What, and you don't?

[–]yoashby 1 point2 points ago

HA, well done. Was expecting angry tirade. We're getting somehwhere here.

[–]counters 1 point2 points ago

What, you think I'm "angry?" Do you have any idea how hilarious some of the posters/trolls in this forum are? Methinks you project too much.

[–]yoashby 1 point2 points ago

nah i said i was expecting an angry rant. me thinks we all get our backs up a bit too much in here. refreshing exchange this time.

[–]hammiesink -5 points-4 points ago

But Greg Laden is funded by the IPCC and the UN. Of course he would say that.